Decisions And Conviction

Searching for 'Decisions' on Harvard Business Review returns 4,654 results, from 'How One F-35 Fighter Pilot Makes Decisions Under Pressure' and 'Make Better Decisions by Challenging Your Expectations' to 'Using ChatGPT to Make Better Decisions.' I recommend all of these because they offer interesting reads.

As I delved into the research, one aspect struck me. While a lot of emphasis is placed on the 'how,' which includes topics ranging from data to biases, there is scant research that discusses the 'who.' Who is making the decision, and is there something intangible at play that might be influencing the quality, speed, and consistency of decisions? Memorizing frameworks alone can't guarantee sound decision-making.

My hypothesis is that the individual's 'Conviction' is the decisive factor in determining the quality of the end result. In the presence of conviction, while any single decision in itself might be suboptimal, the average is great and leads to achieving hard objectives.

Life consists of a series of decisions, from choosing Tiramisu gelato to selecting a life partner. We all grapple with this fundamental aspect of life, often succumbing to procrastination, falling into choice paralysis, or getting stuck in an endless loop of data collection, choosing comfort over the right path.

Life is a series of decisions, from choosing Tiramisu gelato to selecting a life partner. We all grapple with this fundamental aspect of life, often succumbing to procrastination, falling into choice paralysis, or getting stuck in an endless loop of data collection, choosing comfort over the right path.

Conviction appears to be a rare trait, primarily observed in visionary leaders and change-makers. Everyone has dreams and visions, but what sets an inspiring visionary leader apart is the unwavering conviction they hold in their vision.

James Clear sums it up aptly: "Most people don't need productivity or time management advice. They need conviction."

Why Conviction?

Doing things: Conviction gets stuff done. Instead of endlessly estimating outcomes, it leads to delivering results and then assessing them. The best way to gauge impact is to take action and measure it.

Doing hard things: Hard things are, well, hard! They are forward-looking, and historical data rarely justifies them. Conviction empowers us to make decisions that enable us to take on these challenges. As Sam Altman puts it, "It's very hard to do something novel for the first time; orders of magnitude easier to copy something that is known to be possible. Conviction is either extremely difficult or free."

Doing things for a long time: There are no shortcuts! Changing the world or just one's own life takes time. It means making long-term decisions and sticking to them, despite the naysayers and failures. Conviction makes it easy to weather the storms.

Learnings by doing: Conviction encourages learning through action rather than estimation. This approach increases the probability of taking the road less traveled, often leading to groundbreaking innovation because one doesn't abandon options solely due to difficulties in estimating outcomes or getting said estimates wrong. After all, an 'estimate' is not a certainty. SpaceX is a good example, a company that is comfortable letting rockets blow up in pursuit of learning by doing.

Data agnostic: While data and research can support a conviction, it doesn't have to. Often data could contradict a conviction until it doesn't. Data driven vs data informed are very different approaches.

Confirmation bias: Conviction looks a lot like confirmation bias, and in some cases, may very well be fuelled by it. Teasing apart the two is not easy.

How do you develop conviction?

I honestly don't know. There is definitely no framework to develop it. While I don't know how to develop one, I believe I know where to start looking. In my experience, there are three sources that can help with developing conviction:

Problem: Sometimes we come across a problem that leads to the development of an unscratchable itch or perpetual pain! These problems may not be colossal, but they persistently bother us. They are usually hard to spot as they get buried under the daily routine, hacked workarounds, and require some reflection to spot. They could be something as simple as the inability to set the temperature in one's home, a problem that led to the development of the Nest thermostat.

Principles: Hard to define, harder to stick to, but once established provide unimaginable consistency in decision making. They foster conviction through their consistent application. If you choose to follow this path, limit them to around seven, ensure they remain immutable for at least a decade, and keep them readily accessible.

Vision/Dream: It is akin to having faith because the only way to prove it is to make said vision or dream real. Way easier said than done. They are by definition out there, crazy, and usually sound impossible. But just like faith, once articulated can capture the imagination of millions and rally a generation to achieve the impossible. One of my all time favourite examples is 'We choose to go to the Moon', articulation of the space exploration vision by John F. Kennedy.

Visions and dreams can be personal and need not inspire a nation. They can simply inspire a single person and fill them with conviction. Many scientists and scientific discoveries fall into this category, with individuals or small groups driven relentlessly by a singular vision. Katalin Karikó, who was recently awarded the Nobel Prize for her work on mRNA, which made COVID vaccines possible, was demoted four times during her research on this subject.

There is inarticulable beauty in conviction, which can only be described as incredible clarity and best observed via consistency in decisions. Whether for better or worse, conviction is a prerequisite for achieving difficult tasks.

I would love to know a conviction you have? I am convinced that the choice always lives between what is easy and what is right.

'Let me tell you a story' Walter Isaacson